Altman: AGI will be achieved by the end of 2026

Sam Altman claims OpenAI will achieve AGI by the end of 2026 according to their own definition (a system that can perform most economically important tasks better than humans). OpenAI’s lead researcher, Mark Chen, estimated they are 80% of the way towards achieving this goal as their current model, Astra, is able to conduct week-long scientific experiments on its own, write code, and analyze research papers.

OpenAI has chosen economic productivity as a metric for determining when they have achieved AGI, meaning they can claim success at any point in time based on their own criteria. There is currently no agreed upon definition of AGI among researchers, and some believe recursive self-improvement is still far off.